Tanaina, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

059
FXAK68 PAFC 252344
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Monday)...

A deep vertically stacked low is crossing overhead of the Kenai
Peninsula and into the northwest Gulf of Alaska this afternoon.
It is tracking down the east side of a high amplitude ridge which
extends from the north-central Pacific to the Bering Sea. A
separate ridge is centered to the north over the Beaufort Sea and
into the Arctic. Steady rain, moderate in intensity at times, has
been falling across much of Southcentral today from the Mat-Su to
Anchorage to the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. As of
3pm, the highest rainfall totals ranged from approximately 0.25"
to 0.50" from the northern Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the
southern Mat-Su. Sunshine and warmer temperatures in the Copper
River Basin have led to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. A jet streak (wind maximum) is found along the
interface between low and ridge, from Southwest Alaska to the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island. Cold air advection is helping to
mix winds down to the surface, leading to gusty winds. Winds are
strongest through gaps in the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island,
with gusts to around 40 mph based on limited observations.

The upper level low will continue southward across the northern
Gulf this evening, then down to the southern Gulf Saturday before
exiting to the Pacific on Sunday. The surface low will deepen
through Saturday, leading to a small core of gale force winds
wrapped around the low center. The strongest winds will be
offshore, with much lighter winds along the immediate coastline.
Meanwhile, rain will taper off from north to south this evening,
lingering the longest across the Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound.

As the low tracks southward across the Gulf, the ridge over the
Beaufort Sea will build southward across the mainland and toward
Southcentral on Saturday. Northeasterly low level flow across the
Alaska Range combined with increasing subsidence aloft will lead
to rapidly warming low level temperatures. Expect decreasing
clouds and a quick rebound in temperatures. This will create
enough instability to produce some isolated to scattered
afternoon/evening showers, initiating near the mountains and
tracking southwestward across the valleys. Any showers that do
move over the valleys should be brief in nature.

There is some uncertainty in the placement of upper level features
for Sunday, as short-waves rounding the top of Bering Sea ridge
push across western Alaska and shunt the ridge from the Arctic
eastward toward the Yukon. Guidance supports the idea of a ridge
axis moving overhead of Southcentral, but some solutions now try
to bring in a weak short-wave from the west. For now, ensemble
guidance supports a hot and dry scenario with the upper ridge
suppressing most convection and storm motion keeping whatever does
form confined to the mountains. Some inland areas could approach
80 degrees. If a short-wave does make it into Southcentral, the
main impact would lead to an increase in showers (and possibly
thunderstorms), but they would still be mostly confined to the
mountains. Thus, no matter what is looks like a sunny and warm
day.

By Monday, it does appear the ridge will begin to exit back
eastward and short-waves will move in from the west. However,
forcing looks quite weak and would not expect much precipitation.
Increased cloud cover will lead to marginally cooler temperatures
compared with Sunday.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

As the upper low over mainland Southwest exits into Southcentral
Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska, a broad ridge over the Central
Bering Sea will serve as the primary weather system for the
region. Remaining rainfall over Southwest is largely consolidated
over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay this
evening, continuing to wane as the system exits east towards the
Gulf of Alaska. Gusty northwesterly gap winds through the eastern
Aleutians and AKPen are expected this afternoon through Saturday
evening as the low enters the Gulf. The strongest winds are
expected along the southern AKPen east of Chignik, with gusts
likely reaching gale-force. Small-craft northwesterly winds are
also anticipated for the Bristol Bay marine area, lasting from
this afternoon through Saturday evening.

The ridge over the Bering continues to strengthen and remain
nearly stationary, allowing for the persistent low stratus and fog
to stick around. Following the passage of the trough and it`s
exit to the southeast, the ridge will fill in steadily behind and
expand its influence eastward, allowing for the low stratus and
fog to spread across the eastern Aleutians, reaching the Alaska
Peninsula by Sunday. Weather across the Southwest mainland will
quiet down following the trough passage, allowing for clearing
skies and drier conditions Saturday into Sunday for the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley and portions of interior Bristol Bay. The center
of the ridge will slowly shift toward the Central Bering, settling
over the Pribilof Islands by Monday morning. Weak disturbances
and a stream of North Pacific moisture rotating around the
periphery of the ridge keeps rain chances around for the Kuskokwim
Delta coast and Nunivak Island for Saturday and into Sunday
morning. Mekoryuk to expect ongoing light to moderate rainfall
beginning late tonight and persisting through Sunday morning.

-CL/JH

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term forecast remains largely on track. The most notable
aspect of the forecast continues to be the storms moving into the
Bering Sea from about Wednesday through Friday, and how they
interact with each other. Given uncertainty with the track of
these storms, it`s difficult to say where impacts will be
expected. However, given the strong upper level dynamics and
moisture transport, generally expect synoptic winds up to gale
force, with moderate to heavy rain for the Bering Sea and Aleutian
Islands as these features move through.

Otherwise, fairly quiet for the remainder of Southern Alaska. An
upper level ridge building across the Southern Mainland will keep
temperatures on the warmer side, and help suppress rainfall over
Southwest Alaska. For Southcentral, the weather will remain more
unsettled as upper level shortwaves emanate from a longwave
trough over Northern Alaska.

-KC

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...An upper level low dropping across Southcentral will bring
rainfall and deteriorated conditions into the evening. Ceilings
will continue to fluctuate between lower to MVFR and periods of
IFR during more intense showers. A return to VFR conditions is
expected by tonight as rain comes to an end after 03z. A brief
period of lower MFVR to IFR ceilings may return after 12z as winds
become light and variable with some low-level moisture lingering
over Cook Inlet.

&&


$$